We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.
It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.
As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.
In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.
As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.
We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.
| Total | Salary | Team | qb_name | qb_pts | qb_sal | receiver_name | receiver_pts | receiver_sal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.22820 | 15300 | ARI | Kyler Murray | 23.28040 | 7100 | DeAndre Hopkins | 19.94780 | 8200 |
| 40.75999 | 14900 | GB | Aaron Rodgers | 20.52740 | 7000 | Davante Adams | 20.23259 | 7900 |
| 40.61421 | 15200 | SEA | Russell Wilson | 23.74840 | 8000 | DK Metcalf | 16.86581 | 7200 |
| 40.12167 | 14700 | BUF | Josh Allen | 22.72985 | 7700 | Stefon Diggs | 17.39182 | 7000 |
| 39.49473 | 13700 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 22.83550 | 7400 | Travis Kelce | 16.65923 | 6300 |
| 38.14712 | 13600 | HOU | Deshaun Watson | 22.45500 | 6800 | Will Fuller | 15.69212 | 6800 |
| 37.42710 | 14000 | ATL | Matt Ryan | 20.00965 | 6700 | Calvin Ridley | 17.41745 | 7300 |
| 36.15556 | 12600 | LAC | Justin Herbert | 19.96490 | 6400 | Keenan Allen | 16.19066 | 6200 |
| 36.00460 | 13200 | DET | Matthew Stafford | 19.73630 | 6500 | Kenny Golladay | 16.26830 | 6700 |
| 34.95950 | 13700 | NO | Drew Brees | 18.65825 | 6100 | Michael Thomas | 16.30125 | 7600 |
| 33.44925 | 12500 | TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 18.91700 | 6200 | A.J. Brown | 14.53225 | 6300 |
| 33.10100 | 10900 | CIN | Joe Burrow | 17.92325 | 5500 | Tyler Boyd | 15.17775 | 5400 |
| 32.89950 | 12900 | DAL | Andy Dalton | 17.43925 | 6000 | Amari Cooper | 15.46025 | 6900 |
| 32.75450 | 11800 | CAR | Teddy Bridgewater | 17.36100 | 5800 | Robby Anderson | 15.39350 | 6000 |
| 31.57125 | SF | Jimmy Garoppolo | 16.23300 | 5300 | George Kittle | 15.33825 | 6500 | |
| 31.38130 | 12300 | PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 18.09380 | 6600 | Chase Claypool | 13.28750 | 5700 |
| 30.92088 | 11000 | WAS | Kyle Allen | 14.57655 | 5200 | Terry McLaurin | 16.34433 | 5800 |
| 30.13710 | 11300 | NE | Cam Newton | 19.09110 | 6300 | Julian Edelman | 11.04600 | 5000 |
| 27.18260 | 10900 | NYJ | Sam Darnold | 12.59460 | 5000 | Jamison Crowder | 14.58800 | 5900 |
| 25.96710 | 10200 | DEN | Drew Lock | 14.65360 | 5100 | Jerry Jeudy | 11.31350 | 5100 |
| 25.93364 | 9600 | CLE | Baker Mayfield | 15.69250 | 5600 | Austin Hooper | 10.24114 | 4000 |
| 10.47400 | 9200 | JAX | Mike Glennon | 0.90400 | 4500 | Keelan Cole | 9.57000 | 4700 |
| Total | Salary | Team | qb_name | qb_pts | qb_sal | receiver_name | receiver_pts | receiver_sal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.59276 | 29800 | SEA | Russell Wilson | 23.74840 | 8000 | DK Metcalf | 16.86581 | 7200 |
| Tyler Lockett | 16.23015 | 6600 | ||||||
| 78.91288 | 27500 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 22.83550 | 7400 | Travis Kelce | 16.65923 | 6300 |
| Tyreek Hill | 16.58264 | 6400 | ||||||
| 78.76810 | 27300 | ARI | Kyler Murray | 23.28040 | 7100 | DeAndre Hopkins | 19.94780 | 8200 |
| Christian Kirk | 12.25950 | 4900 | ||||||
| 74.23775 | 27800 | ATL | Matt Ryan | 20.00965 | 6700 | Calvin Ridley | 17.41745 | 7300 |
| Julio Jones | 16.80100 | 7100 | ||||||
| 74.15112 | 25600 | HOU | Deshaun Watson | 22.45500 | 6800 | Will Fuller | 15.69212 | 6800 |
| Brandin Cooks | 13.54900 | 5200 | ||||||
| 73.51602 | 27300 | BUF | Josh Allen | 22.72985 | 7700 | Stefon Diggs | 17.39182 | 7000 |
| Cole Beasley | 10.66450 | 4900 | ||||||
| 70.74389 | 26000 | GB | Aaron Rodgers | 20.52740 | 7000 | Davante Adams | 20.23259 | 7900 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.45650 | 4100 | ||||||
| 68.64996 | 23700 | LAC | Justin Herbert | 19.96490 | 6400 | Keenan Allen | 16.19066 | 6200 |
| Mike Williams | 12.52950 | 4700 | ||||||
| 66.33774 | 24700 | DET | Matthew Stafford | 19.73630 | 6500 | Kenny Golladay | 16.26830 | 6700 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 10.59684 | 5000 | ||||||
| 64.54000 | 24900 | NO | Drew Brees | 18.65825 | 6100 | Michael Thomas | 16.30125 | 7600 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10.92225 | 5100 | ||||||
| 64.46650 | 21700 | CIN | Joe Burrow | 17.92325 | 5500 | Tyler Boyd | 15.17775 | 5400 |
| Tee Higgins | 13.44225 | 5300 | ||||||
| 63.81725 | 25400 | DAL | Andy Dalton | 17.43925 | 6000 | Amari Cooper | 15.46025 | 6900 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 13.47850 | 6500 | ||||||
| 62.47975 | 23500 | TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 18.91700 | 6200 | A.J. Brown | 14.53225 | 6300 |
| Corey Davis | 10.11350 | 4800 | ||||||
| 61.41375 | 22100 | SF | Jimmy Garoppolo | 16.23300 | 5300 | George Kittle | 15.33825 | 6500 |
| Deebo Samuel | 13.60950 | 5000 | ||||||
| 60.21160 | 23100 | PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 18.09380 | 6600 | Chase Claypool | 13.28750 | 5700 |
| Diontae Johnson | 10.73650 | 4200 | ||||||
| 57.57545 | 21500 | NE | Cam Newton | 19.09110 | 6300 | Julian Edelman | 11.04600 | 5000 |
| N’Keal Harry | 8.34725 | 3900 | ||||||
| 56.39275 | CAR | Teddy Bridgewater | 17.36100 | 5800 | Robby Anderson | 15.39350 | 6000 | |
| Curtis Samuel | 6.27725 | 3900 | ||||||
| 52.91418 | 19700 | WAS | Kyle Allen | 14.57655 | 5200 | Terry McLaurin | 16.34433 | 5800 |
| Logan Thomas | 7.41675 | 3500 | ||||||
| 51.84220 | 19900 | DEN | Drew Lock | 14.65360 | 5100 | Jerry Jeudy | 11.31350 | 5100 |
| Tim Patrick | 11.22150 | 4600 | ||||||
| 51.72364 | 19800 | CLE | Baker Mayfield | 15.69250 | 5600 | Austin Hooper | 10.24114 | 4000 |
| Jarvis Landry | 10.09750 | 4600 | ||||||
| 48.43820 | 19600 | NYJ | Sam Darnold | 12.59460 | 5000 | Jamison Crowder | 14.58800 | 5900 |
| Breshad Perriman | 8.66100 | 3700 | ||||||
| 17.15850 | 16700 | JAX | Mike Glennon | 0.90400 | 4500 | Keelan Cole | 9.57000 | 4700 |
| Chris Conley | 5.78050 | 3000 |
| Total | Salary | Team | qb_name | qb_pts | qb_sal | receiver_name | receiver_pts | receiver_sal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.61816 | 41400 | SEA | Russell Wilson | 23.74840 | 8000 | DK Metcalf | 16.865815 | 7200 |
| Tyler Lockett | 16.230150 | 6600 | ||||||
| Greg Olsen | 7.277000 | 3600 | ||||||
| 111.30838 | 39500 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 22.83550 | 7400 | Travis Kelce | 16.659232 | 6300 |
| Tyreek Hill | 16.582643 | 6400 | ||||||
| Sammy Watkins | 9.560000 | 4600 | ||||||
| 109.99650 | 38600 | ARI | Kyler Murray | 23.28040 | 7100 | DeAndre Hopkins | 19.947799 | 8200 |
| Christian Kirk | 12.259500 | 4900 | ||||||
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7.948000 | 4200 | ||||||
| 105.97887 | 40100 | BUF | Josh Allen | 22.72985 | 7700 | Stefon Diggs | 17.391816 | 7000 |
| Cole Beasley | 10.664500 | 4900 | ||||||
| John Brown | 9.733000 | 5100 | ||||||
| 105.78187 | 36700 | HOU | Deshaun Watson | 22.45500 | 6800 | Will Fuller | 15.692116 | 6800 |
| Brandin Cooks | 13.549000 | 5200 | ||||||
| Randall Cobb | 9.175750 | 4300 | ||||||
| 103.43680 | 38900 | ATL | Matt Ryan | 20.00965 | 6700 | Calvin Ridley | 17.417452 | 7300 |
| Julio Jones | 16.801000 | 7100 | ||||||
| Hayden Hurst | 9.189395 | 4400 | ||||||
| 100.57048 | 34600 | LAC | Justin Herbert | 19.96490 | 6400 | Keenan Allen | 16.190665 | 6200 |
| Mike Williams | 12.529500 | 4700 | ||||||
| Hunter Henry | 11.955620 | 4500 | ||||||
| 100.18334 | 37600 | GB | Aaron Rodgers | 20.52740 | 7000 | Davante Adams | 20.232587 | 7900 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.456500 | 4100 | ||||||
| Robert Tonyan | 8.912052 | 4600 | ||||||
| 93.93229 | 34500 | DET | Matthew Stafford | 19.73630 | 6500 | Kenny Golladay | 16.268302 | 6700 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 10.596842 | 5000 | ||||||
| Danny Amendola | 7.858250 | 3300 | ||||||
| 93.02100 | 31500 | CIN | Joe Burrow | 17.92325 | 5500 | Tyler Boyd | 15.177750 | 5400 |
| Tee Higgins | 13.442250 | 5300 | ||||||
| A.J. Green | 10.631250 | 4300 | ||||||
| 92.90164 | 35300 | NO | Drew Brees | 18.65825 | 6100 | Michael Thomas | 16.301250 | 7600 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10.922250 | 5100 | ||||||
| Jared Cook | 9.703393 | 4300 | ||||||
| 91.34650 | 36000 | DAL | Andy Dalton | 17.43925 | 6000 | Amari Cooper | 15.460250 | 6900 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 13.478500 | 6500 | ||||||
| Michael Gallup | 10.090000 | 4600 | ||||||
| 91.33435 | 34400 | TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 18.91700 | 6200 | A.J. Brown | 14.532250 | 6300 |
| Corey Davis | 10.113500 | 4800 | ||||||
| Jonnu Smith | 9.937596 | 4700 | ||||||
| 88.50690 | 35200 | PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 18.09380 | 6600 | Chase Claypool | 13.287500 | 5700 |
| Diontae Johnson | 10.736500 | 4200 | ||||||
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10.201500 | 5500 | ||||||
| 87.42100 | 31500 | SF | Jimmy Garoppolo | 16.23300 | 5300 | George Kittle | 15.338250 | 6500 |
| Deebo Samuel | 13.609500 | 5000 | ||||||
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9.774250 | 4100 | ||||||
| 84.24055 | 31600 | NE | Cam Newton | 19.09110 | 6300 | Julian Edelman | 11.046000 | 5000 |
| N’Keal Harry | 8.347250 | 3900 | ||||||
| Damiere Byrd | 7.574000 | 3800 | ||||||
| 79.39575 | 30300 | CAR | Teddy Bridgewater | 17.36100 | 5800 | Robby Anderson | 15.393500 | 6000 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6.277250 | 3900 | ||||||
| Ian Thomas | 5.642000 | 3000 | ||||||
| 76.06130 | 29800 | DEN | Drew Lock | 14.65360 | 5100 | Jerry Jeudy | 11.313500 | 5100 |
| Tim Patrick | 11.221500 | 4600 | ||||||
| Noah Fant | 9.565500 | 4800 | ||||||
| 74.80873 | 28500 | WAS | Kyle Allen | 14.57655 | 5200 | Terry McLaurin | 16.344332 | 5800 |
| Logan Thomas | 7.416750 | 3500 | ||||||
| Dontrelle Inman | 7.318000 | 3600 | ||||||
| 71.29764 | 28400 | CLE | Baker Mayfield | 15.69250 | 5600 | Austin Hooper | 10.241141 | 4000 |
| Jarvis Landry | 10.097500 | 4600 | ||||||
| David Njoku | 3.881500 | 3000 | ||||||
| 65.80505 | 27600 | NYJ | Sam Darnold | 12.59460 | 5000 | Jamison Crowder | 14.588000 | 5900 |
| Breshad Perriman | 8.661000 | 3700 | ||||||
| Chris Herndon | 4.772250 | 3000 | ||||||
| 23.03525 | 23800 | JAX | Mike Glennon | 0.90400 | 4500 | Keelan Cole | 9.570000 | 4700 |
| Chris Conley | 5.780500 | 3000 | ||||||
| James O’Shaughnessy | 4.972750 | 2600 |
Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.