Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

Total Salary Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
43.22820 15300 ARI Kyler Murray 23.28040 7100 DeAndre Hopkins 19.94780 8200
40.75999 14900 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.52740 7000 Davante Adams 20.23259 7900
40.61421 15200 SEA Russell Wilson 23.74840 8000 DK Metcalf 16.86581 7200
40.12167 14700 BUF Josh Allen 22.72985 7700 Stefon Diggs 17.39182 7000
39.49473 13700 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.83550 7400 Travis Kelce 16.65923 6300
38.14712 13600 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.45500 6800 Will Fuller 15.69212 6800
37.42710 14000 ATL Matt Ryan 20.00965 6700 Calvin Ridley 17.41745 7300
36.15556 12600 LAC Justin Herbert 19.96490 6400 Keenan Allen 16.19066 6200
36.00460 13200 DET Matthew Stafford 19.73630 6500 Kenny Golladay 16.26830 6700
34.95950 13700 NO Drew Brees 18.65825 6100 Michael Thomas 16.30125 7600
33.44925 12500 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.91700 6200 A.J. Brown 14.53225 6300
33.10100 10900 CIN Joe Burrow 17.92325 5500 Tyler Boyd 15.17775 5400
32.89950 12900 DAL Andy Dalton 17.43925 6000 Amari Cooper 15.46025 6900
32.75450 11800 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.36100 5800 Robby Anderson 15.39350 6000
31.57125 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.23300 5300 George Kittle 15.33825 6500
31.38130 12300 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.09380 6600 Chase Claypool 13.28750 5700
30.92088 11000 WAS Kyle Allen 14.57655 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.34433 5800
30.13710 11300 NE Cam Newton 19.09110 6300 Julian Edelman 11.04600 5000
27.18260 10900 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.59460 5000 Jamison Crowder 14.58800 5900
25.96710 10200 DEN Drew Lock 14.65360 5100 Jerry Jeudy 11.31350 5100
25.93364 9600 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.69250 5600 Austin Hooper 10.24114 4000
10.47400 9200 JAX Mike Glennon 0.90400 4500 Keelan Cole 9.57000 4700
Total Salary Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
80.59276 29800 SEA Russell Wilson 23.74840 8000 DK Metcalf 16.86581 7200
Tyler Lockett 16.23015 6600
78.91288 27500 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.83550 7400 Travis Kelce 16.65923 6300
Tyreek Hill 16.58264 6400
78.76810 27300 ARI Kyler Murray 23.28040 7100 DeAndre Hopkins 19.94780 8200
Christian Kirk 12.25950 4900
74.23775 27800 ATL Matt Ryan 20.00965 6700 Calvin Ridley 17.41745 7300
Julio Jones 16.80100 7100
74.15112 25600 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.45500 6800 Will Fuller 15.69212 6800
Brandin Cooks 13.54900 5200
73.51602 27300 BUF Josh Allen 22.72985 7700 Stefon Diggs 17.39182 7000
Cole Beasley 10.66450 4900
70.74389 26000 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.52740 7000 Davante Adams 20.23259 7900
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.45650 4100
68.64996 23700 LAC Justin Herbert 19.96490 6400 Keenan Allen 16.19066 6200
Mike Williams 12.52950 4700
66.33774 24700 DET Matthew Stafford 19.73630 6500 Kenny Golladay 16.26830 6700
T.J. Hockenson 10.59684 5000
64.54000 24900 NO Drew Brees 18.65825 6100 Michael Thomas 16.30125 7600
Emmanuel Sanders 10.92225 5100
64.46650 21700 CIN Joe Burrow 17.92325 5500 Tyler Boyd 15.17775 5400
Tee Higgins 13.44225 5300
63.81725 25400 DAL Andy Dalton 17.43925 6000 Amari Cooper 15.46025 6900
CeeDee Lamb 13.47850 6500
62.47975 23500 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.91700 6200 A.J. Brown 14.53225 6300
Corey Davis 10.11350 4800
61.41375 22100 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.23300 5300 George Kittle 15.33825 6500
Deebo Samuel 13.60950 5000
60.21160 23100 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.09380 6600 Chase Claypool 13.28750 5700
Diontae Johnson 10.73650 4200
57.57545 21500 NE Cam Newton 19.09110 6300 Julian Edelman 11.04600 5000
N’Keal Harry 8.34725 3900
56.39275 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.36100 5800 Robby Anderson 15.39350 6000
Curtis Samuel 6.27725 3900
52.91418 19700 WAS Kyle Allen 14.57655 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.34433 5800
Logan Thomas 7.41675 3500
51.84220 19900 DEN Drew Lock 14.65360 5100 Jerry Jeudy 11.31350 5100
Tim Patrick 11.22150 4600
51.72364 19800 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.69250 5600 Austin Hooper 10.24114 4000
Jarvis Landry 10.09750 4600
48.43820 19600 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.59460 5000 Jamison Crowder 14.58800 5900
Breshad Perriman 8.66100 3700
17.15850 16700 JAX Mike Glennon 0.90400 4500 Keelan Cole 9.57000 4700
Chris Conley 5.78050 3000
Total Salary Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
111.61816 41400 SEA Russell Wilson 23.74840 8000 DK Metcalf 16.865815 7200
Tyler Lockett 16.230150 6600
Greg Olsen 7.277000 3600
111.30838 39500 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.83550 7400 Travis Kelce 16.659232 6300
Tyreek Hill 16.582643 6400
Sammy Watkins 9.560000 4600
109.99650 38600 ARI Kyler Murray 23.28040 7100 DeAndre Hopkins 19.947799 8200
Christian Kirk 12.259500 4900
Larry Fitzgerald 7.948000 4200
105.97887 40100 BUF Josh Allen 22.72985 7700 Stefon Diggs 17.391816 7000
Cole Beasley 10.664500 4900
John Brown 9.733000 5100
105.78187 36700 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.45500 6800 Will Fuller 15.692116 6800
Brandin Cooks 13.549000 5200
Randall Cobb 9.175750 4300
103.43680 38900 ATL Matt Ryan 20.00965 6700 Calvin Ridley 17.417452 7300
Julio Jones 16.801000 7100
Hayden Hurst 9.189395 4400
100.57048 34600 LAC Justin Herbert 19.96490 6400 Keenan Allen 16.190665 6200
Mike Williams 12.529500 4700
Hunter Henry 11.955620 4500
100.18334 37600 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.52740 7000 Davante Adams 20.232587 7900
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.456500 4100
Robert Tonyan 8.912052 4600
93.93229 34500 DET Matthew Stafford 19.73630 6500 Kenny Golladay 16.268302 6700
T.J. Hockenson 10.596842 5000
Danny Amendola 7.858250 3300
93.02100 31500 CIN Joe Burrow 17.92325 5500 Tyler Boyd 15.177750 5400
Tee Higgins 13.442250 5300
A.J. Green 10.631250 4300
92.90164 35300 NO Drew Brees 18.65825 6100 Michael Thomas 16.301250 7600
Emmanuel Sanders 10.922250 5100
Jared Cook 9.703393 4300
91.34650 36000 DAL Andy Dalton 17.43925 6000 Amari Cooper 15.460250 6900
CeeDee Lamb 13.478500 6500
Michael Gallup 10.090000 4600
91.33435 34400 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.91700 6200 A.J. Brown 14.532250 6300
Corey Davis 10.113500 4800
Jonnu Smith 9.937596 4700
88.50690 35200 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.09380 6600 Chase Claypool 13.287500 5700
Diontae Johnson 10.736500 4200
JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.201500 5500
87.42100 31500 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.23300 5300 George Kittle 15.338250 6500
Deebo Samuel 13.609500 5000
Brandon Aiyuk 9.774250 4100
84.24055 31600 NE Cam Newton 19.09110 6300 Julian Edelman 11.046000 5000
N’Keal Harry 8.347250 3900
Damiere Byrd 7.574000 3800
79.39575 30300 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.36100 5800 Robby Anderson 15.393500 6000
Curtis Samuel 6.277250 3900
Ian Thomas 5.642000 3000
76.06130 29800 DEN Drew Lock 14.65360 5100 Jerry Jeudy 11.313500 5100
Tim Patrick 11.221500 4600
Noah Fant 9.565500 4800
74.80873 28500 WAS Kyle Allen 14.57655 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.344332 5800
Logan Thomas 7.416750 3500
Dontrelle Inman 7.318000 3600
71.29764 28400 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.69250 5600 Austin Hooper 10.241141 4000
Jarvis Landry 10.097500 4600
David Njoku 3.881500 3000
65.80505 27600 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.59460 5000 Jamison Crowder 14.588000 5900
Breshad Perriman 8.661000 3700
Chris Herndon 4.772250 3000
23.03525 23800 JAX Mike Glennon 0.90400 4500 Keelan Cole 9.570000 4700
Chris Conley 5.780500 3000
James O’Shaughnessy 4.972750 2600

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.